Key Takeaways
- High confidence means stronger source support, not certainty.
- Medium confidence often means good thesis evidence but unclear size.
- Low confidence is useful for watchlist and discovery signals.
- Confidence can change after every daily scan.
High Confidence
High confidence usually requires recent direct language, repeated supporting evidence, or public validation. It still remains an estimate unless exact holdings are published.
Medium Confidence
Medium confidence often applies when a stock has real support but incomplete sizing, older evidence, or mixed signals about whether exposure remains large.
Low Confidence
Low confidence can still be useful for idea discovery. It simply means the stock should not be treated as a strong current portfolio estimate.
FAQ
Can a high-confidence estimate be wrong?
Yes. Public evidence can be incomplete or outdated.
How can confidence improve?
New direct holding or sizing evidence can improve confidence during an update.